The price of olive oil fell to the lowest mark in the last decade. The main reason for falling prices is reducing the demand of olive oil in the southern European countries. Because of the crisis people go for sunflower oil and butter. In Ukraine conversely is growing demand for olive oil.
Italy, Greece and Spain provide 70% of global sales of olive oil and 60% of consumption. According to broker ICAP, the Greeks began to abandon the premium grades of olive oil in favor of normal, while the Spaniards were eating more butter.
Crisis for Ukrainian is indifferent. As the director of financial and analytical consulting Priority Consulting Andrew Kozachenko said, in recent years the share of olive oil in the consumer basket Ukrainian actively growing. While in the consumption of vegetable oils, its share is only 1.5%, or 0.07 liters per capita. However, when compared with the figure in 2006, it increased eight times from 0.01 liters (0.3%) per capita.
Currently olive oil market in Ukraine can be characterized as stable growing. “In the first quarter of 2012, the volume of supply over the same period last year increased by 9.6%, which characterizes the market with the positive side,” – said Andrew Kozachenko.
According to Priority Consulting, in 2011 imports of sunflower oil, according to State Statistics Committee, was 3.70 million kg, in 2010 – 3.26 million kg, in 2009 and – 2.62 million kg. For comparison: in 2006 imports of olive oil amounted to 0.75 million kg in 2007 – 1.44 million kg. According to Priority Consulting, the largest supplier, who holds positions for many years, is Spain, which owns about 60% market share in the total supply of olive oil. There is a large share of Greece, which are about 18-20%, Italy – 14-15%.
If you consider the rate of average annual consumption of olive oil per person, we can note a very low consumption of this product in Ukraine in comparison with many European countries. It also forms the reserves market growth in the upcoming term. Producing countries consume 80% of olive oil: the Greeks – 23.7 kg. per capita per year, Italians – 13.6, the Spaniards – 13.5, the people of Tunisia – 9.1, Portuguese – 7.1 kg, Germany, England, Canada – 0.7 kg. While in Ukraine only 0.3 kg.
Thus, the Ukrainian market, in terms of economic growth and unsaturation segment presents interest to producers of olive oil.
As the analysts said, annual demand for olive oil in Ukraine has increased due to the gradual introduction in Ukraine the culture of consumption of olive oils by means of exhibitions, workshops, presentations and tastings. Therefore, given the situation on world markets will not entail a strong reduction of olive oil.
“It is forecast that the impact of the above factors may affect the price drop to 2-5%, but considering strategies of world producers in foreign markets the Ukrainian market is characterized by significant growth potential that will contain lower prices”, – says Andrew Kozachenko.
“Due to the situation on the world olive oil market in the future should expect growth as consumption and imports of olive oil to Ukraine. Far from saturation of the market, plus elite product and price reductions on it together affect the recovery of demand and increased sales of the product. And with the growth of the welfare population will grow and the financial capacity of the market by increasing the benefits of olive oil with premium and super-premium-segment in the opposite case – will be imported oil lower price ranges “- predicts Andrew Kozachenko.
During the week the price of sunflower oil followed global trends, showing that a slight increase, then decrease. But just at the end of the reporting period, a significant intensification of demand for Ukrainian products has caused the strengthening of the market (export prices increased on average by 15 USD / t).
Prices demand for sunflower oil located within the 1215-1220 USD / t on FOB Black Sea port for delivery in May for proposals aired in the range 1230-1235 USD / t
In terms of DAF-Poland exporters offer goods at a price of 1235-1240 USD / ton on the domestic market of oil changes were observed.
Currently manufacturers are willing to sell sunflower oil at a price of 9750-9950 UAH / t, EXW.
Price of sunflower oil in this season is very attractive compared to other oils. But despite the significant increase in demand, oil is still cheaper than other analogues, such as soy.
According to estimates by Oil World (Germany), Ukraine and Russia possess in general 300-350 tons of oil they can sell on the world market in July and September, which will make a significant pressure on prices.
Step-down effect also has information on good prospects for new crop seeds. As a result, consumers do not feel the need to force the purchase of oil on world markets.
Analysts believe that in July-September, sunflower oil does not lose his attractive price, especially since the market is a shortage of competing oils and fats, and the prospects of soybean in the U.S. worsen.
It is expected that at least to start in 2013, sunflower oil will be actively offered in the markets of North Africa and Asia.